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Numbers Guy BlogMinimize
By The Numbers Guy on 5/17/2011 12:12 PM
The Preakness tends to be quite formful.  Out of the past 21 races, the fave has won 9 times (43%).  16 of 21 (76%) winners have gone off at less than 4-1.  In fact, in the past 2 decades, the only winner paying more than 10-1 was 2005 Bernadini at 12-1, so make sure you have a solid reason before fishing for longshots.

I do not usually give much consideration to post position bias; however, it is hard to ignore that since 1995 no Preakness winner has started from post positions 1-3.  In fact, only 2 out of the past 16 winners have started inside post position 6, Curlin in 2007 and Red Bullet in 2000, both from PP 4. In handicapping this year’s Preakness, I will likely give a slight bit more consideration to the outside horses.

While I duly note that horses from the outside posts have performed exceedingly well in the Preakness, it is true that most of these were also superior horses: Lookin at Lucky, Rachel Alexandra, Big Brown, Afleet Alex, Smarty Jones, War Emblem, Funny Cide, Point Given, Real...
  
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Another Circle Back Longshot
2015 Belmont Stakes Recap
2015 Belmont Stakes Analysis: Top 4
2015 Belmont Stakes Analysis: Bottom 4
2015 Belmont Stakes Preview
Preakness Review of Longshot Winners
2015 Preakness Preview
Young Horses after a Layoff
2015 Kentucky Derby Recap
Kentucky Derby 2015 Analysis: Top 5
  
Recent_CommentsMinimize
Re: 2015 Belmont Stakes Recap
Why did Keen Ice receive a better figure than Frosted?
Re: 2015 Belmont Stakes Analysis: Top 4
Ok
Yesterday at Belmont
Race 1 and Race 4 were pure mysteries?..
Can you shed any light?
Re: 2015 Belmont Stakes Analysis: Top 4
Thank you.
Great work.
I am still enjoying and having fun.
Also winning money as I go.
Keep up the great work!
Re: 2015 Belmont Stakes Analysis: Top 4
Nice commentary
sheets for Saturday Belmont Card feature mucho value plays
Hope the Numbers hold up
Re: Kentucky Derby 2015 Analysis: Top 5
Thanks again for providing the numbers for the Derby. I bet Firing Line based on the pattern.
Re: Kentucky Derby 2015 Analysis: Bottom 10
He is a fine horse. I simply have a bias against overseas horses coming to US for the first time to race against our Grade 1 horses on the dirt. Turf would be a different story.
Re: Kentucky Derby 2015 Analysis: Bottom 10
He is a fine horse. I simply have a bias against overseas horses coming to US for the first time to race against our Grade 1 horses on the dirt. Turf would be a different story.
Re: Kentucky Derby 2015 Analysis: Bottom 10
Please explain why you don't think Mubtaahij fits with these. He cn certainly get the distance and he was gearing down before the finish in his last. He has impeccable breeding and one of the best trainers in the world. He is training well and nothing bothers him. He can rate behind the frontrunners and pick them up in the stretch.
Re: Kentucky Derby 2015 Preliminary
Looking forward to your analysis of the Derby. Thanks for posting the numbers. Firing Line looks good to me.
Re: Fast Horses and the Bounce
I think the fact that drove the price so high on Town Kitty was the fact that the betting crowd (myself included) dismissed the sole high figured was earned at a minor track.

Regardless of which methodology of figures handicappers rely on, they feel comfortable relying on figures earned on their racing circuit or that from a higher caliber - even if they are accurately adjusted with an appropriate track-to-track adjustment.

To me, this is probably just human instinct; hence, the topic of class is bought into this, i.e dismissing those runners that have run at inferior tracks, even at a higher class level than today's race.
  
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CommentsMinimize
Re: 2015 Belmont Stakes Recap
Why did Keen Ice receive a better figure than Frosted?
Re: 2015 Belmont Stakes Analysis: Top 4
Ok
Yesterday at Belmont
Race 1 and Race 4 were pure mysteries?..
Can you shed any light?
Re: 2015 Belmont Stakes Analysis: Top 4
Thank you.
Great work.
I am still enjoying and having fun.
Also winning money as I go.
Keep up the great work!
Re: 2015 Belmont Stakes Analysis: Top 4
Nice commentary
sheets for Saturday Belmont Card feature mucho value plays
Hope the Numbers hold up
Re: Kentucky Derby 2015 Analysis: Top 5
Thanks again for providing the numbers for the Derby. I bet Firing Line based on the pattern.
Re: Kentucky Derby 2015 Analysis: Bottom 10
He is a fine horse. I simply have a bias against overseas horses coming to US for the first time to race against our Grade 1 horses on the dirt. Turf would be a different story.
Re: Kentucky Derby 2015 Analysis: Bottom 10
He is a fine horse. I simply have a bias against overseas horses coming to US for the first time to race against our Grade 1 horses on the dirt. Turf would be a different story.
Re: Kentucky Derby 2015 Analysis: Bottom 10
Please explain why you don't think Mubtaahij fits with these. He cn certainly get the distance and he was gearing down before the finish in his last. He has impeccable breeding and one of the best trainers in the world. He is training well and nothing bothers him. He can rate behind the frontrunners and pick them up in the stretch.
Re: Kentucky Derby 2015 Preliminary
Looking forward to your analysis of the Derby. Thanks for posting the numbers. Firing Line looks good to me.
Re: Fast Horses and the Bounce
I think the fact that drove the price so high on Town Kitty was the fact that the betting crowd (myself included) dismissed the sole high figured was earned at a minor track.

Regardless of which methodology of figures handicappers rely on, they feel comfortable relying on figures earned on their racing circuit or that from a higher caliber - even if they are accurately adjusted with an appropriate track-to-track adjustment.

To me, this is probably just human instinct; hence, the topic of class is bought into this, i.e dismissing those runners that have run at inferior tracks, even at a higher class level than today's race.
  
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