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Numbers Guy BlogMinimize
By The Numbers Guy on 5/17/2011 12:12 PM
The Preakness tends to be quite formful.  Out of the past 21 races, the fave has won 9 times (43%).  16 of 21 (76%) winners have gone off at less than 4-1.  In fact, in the past 2 decades, the only winner paying more than 10-1 was 2005 Bernadini at 12-1, so make sure you have a solid reason before fishing for longshots.

I do not usually give much consideration to post position bias; however, it is hard to ignore that since 1995 no Preakness winner has started from post positions 1-3.  In fact, only 2 out of the past 16 winners have started inside post position 6, Curlin in 2007 and Red Bullet in 2000, both from PP 4. In handicapping this year’s Preakness, I will likely give a slight bit more consideration to the outside horses.

While I duly note that horses from the outside posts have performed exceedingly well in the Preakness, it is true that most of these were also superior horses: Lookin at Lucky, Rachel Alexandra, Big Brown, Afleet Alex, Smarty Jones, War Emblem, Funny Cide, Point Given, Real...
  
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Cashing Tickets: The Name of the Game
Rest then Best and a 21-1 Maiden Claimer
Combination of My Two Favorite Patterns
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2014 Belmont Analysis: The Top Five
2014 Belmont Analysis: The Bottom Six
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Recent_CommentsMinimize
Re: PETA Controversy: Hype or Truth?
Gary Stevens and the buzzer is very disappointing to say the least. Again, I believe he deserves a hearing, but the rules are the rules. If he did in fact break the rules, he should suffer the consequences. If the rules/laws are not enforced, why have them?
Re: Time after Time
Your comments on Gary Stevens admitting to using a buzzer would be appreciated?? Should any action be taken?? Maybe ruled off for LIFE??
Re: Marching, New Bests, and Big Wins – Part 2
here's the deal. Will take Charge missed being the Horse of the Year by a nose to Mucho Man. Take charge was the best 3yr old in America last year at the end of the season and had a 3 month lay-ff. Lea a Gr 3 who may go forward off his last a 5yr old going off his best last race with reserve. Got away from the CLASS of the race at 3/4 mark and lasted with every thing left and set a new track record. I gave him a 0. and Take Charge a 0, my point is I don't bet Gr2 or -03's against 1's and not against the top 3 year old in the country. Big Score for those who like that bet keep marching, not for me.
Re: Marching, New Bests, and Big Wins
We consider 0-2-X the Good, Bad and Ugly. In general we view this as a negative pattern because the horse is regressing. However, the 0 is the key. I have found that freshness can be the key with this pattern. If the 0 is strong, then a rest (especially after the X) may be all the horse needs to return to a positive pattern.
Re: Marching, New Bests, and Big Wins
We consider 0-2-X the Good, Bad and Ugly. In general we view this as a negative pattern because the horse is regressing. However, the 0 is the key. I have found that freshness can be the key with this pattern. If the 0 is strong, then a rest (especially after the X) may be all the horse needs to return to a positive pattern.
Re: Marching, New Bests, and Big Wins
NG: though not specifically related to this post, what is your opinion of the 0-2-X pattern described in the Sheets and Thorograph? Is there any applicability using Numbers analysis?; and should Numbers readers expect improvement after the X?
Re: Value and the Rest then Best Pattern
The following comment has been added in the blog The Numbers Guy Blog:
Re: Value and the Rest then Best Pattern
What would you say about Zeewat in that race as well, who had small incremental improvements (Marching) since August? What would you have anticipated that he would run for the Strub, and what was his eventual number.
By , on 1/24/2014.
Re: Value and the Rest then Best Pattern
Here are the Numbers, in finish position order, of the Strub runners:
1. Shakin It Up 3.6
2. Govenor Charlie 4.8
3. Hear the Ghost 5.5
4. Zeewat 7.1
5. Dice Flavor 7.3
6. Heir of Storm 11.0
7. Say Ow 11.3
8. Rookie Sensation 10.3
With the Rest then Best pattern, Shakin It Up improved by 1.1 points to tally rather easily at 3-1. The “other” Baffert horse, 6-1 Govenor Charlie (Southern California horse players are well aware of this angle) returned from an 8 month layoff to run a new Best, finishing 2nd. Note: This now marks Govenor Charlie as a Rest then Best horse!

Hear the Ghost certainly ran a very solid race, even though he was not a good value as the 7-5 favorite. Zeewat also ran well, and I do NOT see his slight regression as a negative sign, as he was stretching to a Route for the first time since returning from a 6 month layoff. In fact, his overall Marching pattern is a thing of beauty; he just ran into some buzzsaws in the Strub.
Re: Kauai Katie Revisited
Thanks, now I have it.
I appreciate the explanation.
Great work!
Re: Fast Horses and Negative Patterns
When Kauai Katie ran her last 7.0 I thought this was a circle back and the 7.0 was the turn the corner race. Where did I go wrong?
  
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CommentsMinimize
Re: PETA Controversy: Hype or Truth?
Gary Stevens and the buzzer is very disappointing to say the least. Again, I believe he deserves a hearing, but the rules are the rules. If he did in fact break the rules, he should suffer the consequences. If the rules/laws are not enforced, why have them?
Re: Time after Time
Your comments on Gary Stevens admitting to using a buzzer would be appreciated?? Should any action be taken?? Maybe ruled off for LIFE??
Re: Marching, New Bests, and Big Wins – Part 2
here's the deal. Will take Charge missed being the Horse of the Year by a nose to Mucho Man. Take charge was the best 3yr old in America last year at the end of the season and had a 3 month lay-ff. Lea a Gr 3 who may go forward off his last a 5yr old going off his best last race with reserve. Got away from the CLASS of the race at 3/4 mark and lasted with every thing left and set a new track record. I gave him a 0. and Take Charge a 0, my point is I don't bet Gr2 or -03's against 1's and not against the top 3 year old in the country. Big Score for those who like that bet keep marching, not for me.
Re: Marching, New Bests, and Big Wins
We consider 0-2-X the Good, Bad and Ugly. In general we view this as a negative pattern because the horse is regressing. However, the 0 is the key. I have found that freshness can be the key with this pattern. If the 0 is strong, then a rest (especially after the X) may be all the horse needs to return to a positive pattern.
Re: Marching, New Bests, and Big Wins
We consider 0-2-X the Good, Bad and Ugly. In general we view this as a negative pattern because the horse is regressing. However, the 0 is the key. I have found that freshness can be the key with this pattern. If the 0 is strong, then a rest (especially after the X) may be all the horse needs to return to a positive pattern.
Re: Marching, New Bests, and Big Wins
NG: though not specifically related to this post, what is your opinion of the 0-2-X pattern described in the Sheets and Thorograph? Is there any applicability using Numbers analysis?; and should Numbers readers expect improvement after the X?
Re: Value and the Rest then Best Pattern
The following comment has been added in the blog The Numbers Guy Blog:
Re: Value and the Rest then Best Pattern
What would you say about Zeewat in that race as well, who had small incremental improvements (Marching) since August? What would you have anticipated that he would run for the Strub, and what was his eventual number.
By , on 1/24/2014.
Re: Value and the Rest then Best Pattern
Here are the Numbers, in finish position order, of the Strub runners:
1. Shakin It Up 3.6
2. Govenor Charlie 4.8
3. Hear the Ghost 5.5
4. Zeewat 7.1
5. Dice Flavor 7.3
6. Heir of Storm 11.0
7. Say Ow 11.3
8. Rookie Sensation 10.3
With the Rest then Best pattern, Shakin It Up improved by 1.1 points to tally rather easily at 3-1. The “other” Baffert horse, 6-1 Govenor Charlie (Southern California horse players are well aware of this angle) returned from an 8 month layoff to run a new Best, finishing 2nd. Note: This now marks Govenor Charlie as a Rest then Best horse!

Hear the Ghost certainly ran a very solid race, even though he was not a good value as the 7-5 favorite. Zeewat also ran well, and I do NOT see his slight regression as a negative sign, as he was stretching to a Route for the first time since returning from a 6 month layoff. In fact, his overall Marching pattern is a thing of beauty; he just ran into some buzzsaws in the Strub.
Re: Kauai Katie Revisited
Thanks, now I have it.
I appreciate the explanation.
Great work!
Re: Fast Horses and Negative Patterns
When Kauai Katie ran her last 7.0 I thought this was a circle back and the 7.0 was the turn the corner race. Where did I go wrong?
  
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